甲醇日报：港口延续库存回建-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. Core Viewpoints - The overall operating level of methanol remains high, with increasing inventory at ports and inland factories. The import arrival pressure is rising, and the basis at ports is declining slightly. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the MTBE load in traditional downstream is low, dragging down the demand in Shandong [2]. - It is recommended to conduct cautious short - selling hedging [3]. Summary by Catalog I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc. relative to the main futures contract) and the spread between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [4][6][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - This part presents figures related to the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (including the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [4][23][28] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures in this section show the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and the overall operating rate of methanol in China [4][31][32] IV. Regional Price Differences - It includes various regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [4][35][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - This part shows the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [4][46][50] Market News and Important Data Inland - Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is 410 yuan/ton (+10), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 605 yuan/ton (-25). The prices of methanol in different inland regions vary, for example, the price in Inner Mongolia North Line is 1900 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis is 294 yuan/ton (-3). The inventory of inland factories and the volume of pending orders are both increasing [1] Ports - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2242 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis is 36 yuan/ton (+4). The total port inventory is increasing, but the inventory in Guangdong port is decreasing. The operating rate of downstream MTO is 83.82% (+1.51%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There are price differences between different regions, and most of them show certain changes, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and northwest is - 50 yuan/ton (+5) [2] Market Analysis - In terms of overseas devices, the number of maintenance of Iranian and non - Iranian devices has increased, but the overall operating level is still high, and the arrival pressure is increasing. Inland, there is a slight maintenance of coal - based methanol, but the overall operating rate is still high, and the inventory of inland factories continues to rise. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high [2] Strategy - Cautiously short - sell for hedging [3]