Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The industrial and agricultural demand is tepid, and the enterprise inventory continues to increase. Some factory inventories are reserved for export as export factory inspections are carried out. The operating rates of coal - based and natural - gas - based urea production have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in a loose market supply. The costs are stable as coal and natural gas prices change little. The urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to rise, leading to a month - on - month increase in port inventory. The downstream agricultural demand is growing steadily, with wheat fertilization demand ending in some areas and rice fertilization demand in the southern regions set to increase. The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,790 yuan/ton (-24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+20). The Shandong basis was 90 yuan/ton (+44), the Henan basis was 70 yuan/ton (+34), and the Jiangsu basis was 110 yuan/ton (+44) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of May 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 980,600 tons (+63,200), and the port sample inventory was 203,000 tons (+40,000) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 507 yuan/ton (+5). The upstream coal - based and natural - gas - based urea operating rates have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The urea export legal inspection information is clear, the urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to increase, with the port inventory rising month - on - month [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of May 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (-2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (-8.33%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 5.88 days (-0.06). The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The port inventory has increased month - on - month due to the expected increase in export demand [1][2]
尿素日报：库存延续增加，下游跟进谨慎-20250529
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-29 02:55