化工日报：聚酯追加减产，产业链震荡偏弱-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR rating: Neutral [4] Core View - On Wednesday, major polyester filament manufacturers increased production cuts, and the prices of the industrial chain fluctuated weakly. The market is currently focused on the Iran - US nuclear talks and the OPEC+ eight - country ministerial meeting on June 1st, with no news to guide the oil price, which is in a consolidation phase. The gasoline cracking has rebounded recently, but the seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The domestic and international intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. The supply of PX has recovered, but the spot market is still tight. The PTA price has rebounded, and some device overhauls have been postponed. The polyester demand is strong in the short term but may weaken in mid - to - late June [1][2][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report presents the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Information on the startup of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX is provided [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are given [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It contains data on filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [47][49][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Details on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and factory inventory available days are provided [71][80][84] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Information on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread is presented [92][94][102]