农产品日报：苹果终端消费一般，红枣走货不佳-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, the current expectation of apple production reduction weakens during the bagging stage, but weather still has an impact. In the short term, apple prices are expected to fluctuate. The substitution effect of summer fruits is increasing, and apple sales are slowing down. However, the remaining apple inventory is at a five - year low, with low de - stocking pressure. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the trading of in - warehouse apple supplies may remain stable [2][3] - For the red date industry, the current absolute price is at a low level, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates, attracting high capital attention. The market is affected by factors such as the over - exhaustion of the 2024 production season and weather changes. In the short term, red date prices will also fluctuate [7][8] Summary by Directory Apple Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,642 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was AP10 + 558, a change of - 60 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was AP10 + 1958, a change of - 60 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The sales in production areas were slow, and the inventory in main production areas was at a low level compared to the same period. With the listing of seasonal fruits, apple consumption was average. The出库 of late Fuji in production areas last week was slightly slower than before. In the western region, the supply of merchants' goods was concentrated, and the number of customers decreased. In Shandong, the overall trading decreased slightly, and merchants replenished goods as needed. The remaining apple inventory is at a five - year low, with low de - stocking pressure. The price of high - quality apples was firm. The substitution effect of summer fruits is increasing, and apple sales are slowing down. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the trading of in - warehouse apple supplies may remain stable. New - season apples are entering the bagging stage, and rainfall in the western region has alleviated the drought to some extent [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With the weakening of the production reduction expectation during the bagging stage and potential weather disturbances, apple prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Red Date Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8,675 yuan/ton, a change of - 230 yuan/ton (-2.58%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ09 - 375, a change of +230 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking ended, the demand for red dates and other tonics decreased with the increase in temperature. With high inventory, the sales pressure was prominent. The current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. Last week, the supply from Xinjiang was transferred to the inland, and the arrival of goods in the sales areas increased. The trading atmosphere weakened after the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the sample inventory increased slightly. The jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the early flowering stage. Due to the large production in the 2024 season, there are potential problems in the growth of new - season red dates, and the growth during the flowering and fruit - setting stage may bring market opportunities [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the low price and the critical growth period of new - season red dates, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as the over - exhaustion of the 2024 production season and weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates. Red date prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]