固收周报：存款利率破1%对债市影响几何？-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Deposit rate decline helps ease banks' net interest margin in the short - term and may lead deposits to flow into the stock and bond markets in the long - term. The decline of deposit rates marks a new stage of China's interest rate liberalization. The bond market presents structural opportunities, and investors should grasp short - term liquidity dividends while being vigilant about the mid - term stock - bond seesaw effect [4][67]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 17,925.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,630.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,295.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank and exchange - market fund prices rose, with some exceptions like DR001 and DR007 [16][21][23]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the primary market of interest - rate bonds issued 9,683.22 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 4,202.43 billion yuan of matured bonds and a net financing of 5,480.79 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [28]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, most treasury bond yields declined, and the term spread widened. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 4.15BP, while the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields declined. Most China Development Bank bond yields also declined, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowing [34]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased. A total of 881 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 12,482.16 billion yuan, a net financing of 1,296.54 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 78.13% of the total issuance scale. The financial industry had the largest number of bond issuances [2][43][45]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the maturity yields of credit bonds declined overall. Among them, the 5 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest decline of 8.84BP, and the 7 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest decline of 6.83BP [2][53]. 3.2.3 Weekly Credit Default Event Review - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [56]. 3.3 Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indices Declined - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the three major US stock indices declined. European stock indices were divided, and most Asia - Pacific stock indices declined [3][57][58]. 3.3.2 US Treasury Yields Rose Overall - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened [3][60]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Strengthened - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the US dollar index fell by 1.84%, and non - US currencies strengthened [3][62]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil Prices Declined, and Gold Prices Rose - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, gold prices rose, and crude oil prices declined [3][64]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - Deposit rate decline helps ease banks' net interest margin in the short - term and may lead deposits to flow into the stock and bond markets in the long - term. Investors should grasp short - term liquidity dividends in the bond market, be vigilant about the mid - term stock - bond seesaw effect, and pay attention to the upward pressure on certificate of deposit rates [4][67].