煤焦早报：煤焦现货再次下调，盘面增仓下行-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock and weakness"; the trend rating for coking coal is also "shock and weakness" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The real estate price recovery has been postponed, industrial added - value has declined, and the real economy's financing demand has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market expects supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - For coking coal, supply is starting to contract, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With the weakening of coking coal prices and the decline of molten iron production, the expectation of the second round of price cuts for coke is strengthening [5] - Recently, supply - side disturbances have increased. Safety incidents and environmental inspections may further limit the supply of coking coal and coke. Although the supply - demand situation is still weak, the pessimistic sentiment may be reversed due to low valuations and supply - side contraction expectations. It is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Spot and Futures Market: The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 920 yuan/ton (-50), and the active contract is reported at 779 yuan/ton (-20.5). The basis is 161 yuan/ton (-29.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -16 yuan/ton (-0.5) [2] - Supply and Demand: The start - up rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (-2.96), the start - up rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.36% (+0.28), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.18% (-0.05) [2] - Inventory: Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 447.53 million tons (+37.08), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 214.74 million tons (+11.48), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 798.75 million tons (+7.54), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 737.96 million tons (-14.6), and the port inventory is 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2] Coke - Spot and Futures Market: The second - round price cut for coke spot has landed. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-50), and the active contract is reported at 1338.5 yuan/ton (-25.5). The basis is 103.03 yuan/ton (-28.85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -24 yuan/ton (-0) [3] - Supply and Demand: The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.18% (-0.05). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average molten iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] - Inventory: Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and the port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Suggestions - Considering the economic data in April, the real estate market recovery is delayed, and the real economy's financing demand has decreased. The market is waiting for supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - For coking coal, pay attention to the changes in mine capacity utilization rate and inventory. For coke, focus on cost and downstream demand. It is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and wait for the opportunity to add positions after confirming the bottom [5][6]