国新国证期货早报-20250529

Variety Views - On May 28, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31% to 1985.38. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3836.24, down 3.16 [1]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1339.7 yuan, down 25.8 [2]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coking coal remained weak, closing at 780.0 yuan, down 17.5 [3]. - Affected by concerns about increased exports from India and waiting for sugar production data from Brazil, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract tumbled on May 28. India's monsoon rainfall in 2025 is expected to be 106% of the long - term average [4]. - With the start of rubber tapping in major producing countries and concerns about tire demand, the spot price in Southeast Asia dropped significantly. The Shanghai rubber futures fell sharply on May 28 [5]. - On May 28, palm oil rebounded slightly within the range and then fell back. The reference price of crude palm oil in Indonesia for June was lowered to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff was reduced to $52 per ton [7]. - On May 28, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The planting rate of US soybeans as of May 25 was 76%. The domestic soybean meal futures closed up 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose [8]. - On May 28, the hog futures fluctuated at the bottom. The market is in a state of loose supply in the long - term, and the futures price is bearish [9]. - The Shanghai copper futures showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable. The price is supported by downstream restocking [10]. - On May 28, the iron ore 2509 contract closed down 0.14% to 698.5 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the futures price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. - On May 28, the asphalt 2507 contract closed down 0.91% to 3481 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken, and the futures price will fluctuate [11]. - On May 28 night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13245 yuan/ton. The cotton price is at a near - three - year low, and weather changes should be monitored [12]. - On May 28, the log futures opened at 754, closed at 758, and decreased in positions by 1356 lots. The spot market is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction [12]. - On May 28, the rb2510 of steel closed at 2964 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton. The black - series market will remain in a "bottom - grinding" pattern [13]. - On May 28, the ao2509 of alumina closed at 2991 yuan/ton. The price is near the cost line, and the upside space is limited [13]. - On May 28, the al2507 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20095 yuan/ton. The inventory is low, and the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13].