美国削减国债拍卖规模，聚焦OPEC+关键会议

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic economic data was mixed, with short - term export support, weakening investment, rising fiscal revenues and expenditures, and slightly pressured consumption. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should also focus on whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - The downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the expectation of fiscal expansion have led to a continuous rise in long - term US Treasury yields, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. The economic data of the US and the eurozone show different trends [2] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different commodities have different responses to tariffs, and the supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, with obvious re - export support and eased Sino - US tariffs. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenues and expenditures increased, supported by land transfer fees, and consumption was slightly pressured. The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] US and Global Economic Situation - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation is rising. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut expectation is postponed to September. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of four - week and eight - week Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. Japan's overseas net assets reached a record high but lost the position of the world's largest creditor nation. The eurozone's economic data weakened, while the US economic data improved [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, different commodities have different responses to tariffs. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price increase due to tariffs is higher. The supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Important News - China may relax rare - earth export controls on European chip companies. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. Trump praised the EU's progress in trade negotiations. Japan's Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel. Japan proposed to buy billions of dollars of US semiconductor products. Japan's 40 - year Treasury bond auction had a low bid - to - cover ratio, and bond yields rose. OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [5]