中信期货晨报：国内商品期货以下跌为主，三大橡胶期货领跌-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas, and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [6]. - Overseas, the inflation expectation structure in the US is stable, and the short - term fundamentals remain resilient. The fiscal impact on short - term sentiment is expected to improve in the next 2 - 3 weeks. In July - September, under the "dual uncertainty" of tariffs and fiscal policy, US stocks and bonds are likely to experience significant fluctuations. - In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance, and may still focus on making good use of existing resources. The export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend. It is recommended to focus on the low - valuation and policy - driven logic [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro: Tariff and US debt concerns are the two main lines of market fluctuations in May. The EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by US President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill on May 22, planning to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 was one of the worst in five years, increasing market concerns about the growth of US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, slightly exceeding expectations. The US manufacturing and service PMI in May both performed better than expected [6]. - Domestic Macro: The domestic economic data in April showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. On May 20, the China - ASEAN Economic and Trade Ministers' Special Meeting was held online, and the two sides announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May 2025. At the same time, many state - owned banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced a cut in deposit interest rates, which was the first round of deposit interest rate cuts by state - owned banks this year. In terms of economic data, investment and consumption growth in April slowed down slightly but still showed resilience. In investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, with an expected 4.3% and a previous value of 4.2%. In consumption, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in April was 5.1%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth was 0.24%, with a low growth rate but still showing some growth [6]. - Asset Views: Overseas, maintain a view of more volatility for equity assets and be vigilant about market risk preferences. In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend [6]. 3.2 View Highlights - Macro: Overseas, the stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In China, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. - Finance: Stock index futures are waiting for a change in volume. Stock index options see enhanced hedging transactions. The bond market for treasury bond futures may still be volatile [7]. - Precious Metals: The risk preference rises, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver continues due to the better - than - expected progress of Sino - US negotiations [7]. - Shipping: The sentiment declines. Pay attention to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The focus is on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases for the container shipping route to Europe [7]. - Black Building Materials: As the off - season approaches, the molten iron output declines, but the ore price remains relatively firm. The demand for steel continues to weaken, and the futures and spot prices decline. The second - round price cut for coke has started, and coke enterprises have difficulty in shipping. The pressure on coking coal inventory reduction increases, and the market sentiment is low [7]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: The inventory reduction generally slows down, and non - ferrous metals remain range - bound. The copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. The alumina market is in high - level consolidation due to the undetermined revocation of mining licenses [7]. - Energy and Chemicals: Sino - US tariffs have dropped significantly, and energy and chemical products are out of the doldrums. The expectation of oil production increase intensifies the pressure on oil prices. The demand for LPG continues to weaken. The asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil prices are overestimated and expected to fall [9]. - Agriculture: Sino - US negotiations have achieved substantial progress, and the sentiment is favorable for the cotton price rebound. The warehouse receipt game for rubber continues to ferment, and NR leads the commodity market. The raw materials for synthetic rubber remain weak, and the market is in horizontal consolidation [9].