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原油日报:美国威胁加大伊朗与俄罗斯石油制裁-20250529
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-29 03:04

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Core View - The impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak, and the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted unless Sino-US relations significantly improve. The core issue is when and to what extent Saudi Arabia will increase production [3] Market News and Key Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's July light crude oil futures rose 95 cents to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; July Brent crude oil futures rose 81 cents to $64.90 per barrel, a 1.26% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.84% to 457 yuan per barrel [2] - OPEC+ has agreed to use 2025's oil production level as the baseline for 2027. It will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum sustainable production capacity. The next JMMC meeting is on November 30. On Saturday, 8 OPEC+ members may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [2] - In the week ending May 23, US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels, API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 342,000 barrels, API gasoline inventory decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - As of the week ending May 26, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased by 13% to 17.894 million barrels, a four-month low [2] - Asian refiners expect Saudi Arabia to cut the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in July to a six-month low [2] - As of the week ending May 24, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 41,602 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 40,289 kiloliters, kerosene inventory increased by 71,204 kiloliters, and diesel inventory decreased by 97,562 kiloliters. The refinery's operable capacity utilization rate was 79.70% [2] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to increase sanctions on Iran and Russia led to an oil price rebound, but the impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak. Unless Sino-US relations improve, the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted. OPEC is expected to accelerate production in July, and the key is Saudi Arabia's production increase [3] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Risks - Downside risks: Reaching of the Iran nuclear deal, macro black swan events [5] - Upside risks: Tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [5]