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2025年中国白酒行业报告:高端量价双增,次高端进入调整周期
Qin Ce Xiao Fei Yan Jiu·2025-05-29 03:05

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese liquor industry, particularly for high-end brands, while noting that the mid-range segment is entering an adjustment phase [3][22]. Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant transformation from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement," with a notable decline in production but an increase in sales revenue, reflecting a trend towards premium consumption [12][13]. - High-end brands are maintaining growth in both volume and price, while the mid-range segment faces challenges, leading to a differentiated market landscape [3][25]. - The industry is witnessing a dual-track transformation in distribution channels, focusing on digitalization of traditional channels and diversification into new consumption scenarios [30][32]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the Liquor Industry - The liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with a revenue growth rate of 7.3% in 2024, significantly outperforming the overall food and beverage sector [6]. - Despite a decline in production from 1,358.4 million liters in 2016 to 414.5 million liters in 2024, sales revenue increased from 561.78 billion yuan to 796.38 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards higher quality consumption [3][12][13]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by three main trends: leading brands driving growth, mid-range brands under pressure, and regional brands finding opportunities [19][60]. - High-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao exhibit high gross margins and low marketing expenses, reflecting strong brand power [56]. - The report highlights the emergence of a new competitive trio: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Shanxi Fenjiu surpassing Yanghe in revenue due to its national strategy [60][64]. Trends in Consumption and Distribution - The report notes a structural adjustment in the liquor market, with high-end brands benefiting from premium pricing strategies while mid-range brands face inventory pressures [25][34]. - The distribution channels are evolving, with traditional distributors still holding a 55% market share, but new channels like e-commerce and live streaming are rapidly gaining traction [30][31]. - The digital transformation of traditional channels is highlighted, with initiatives like Yanghe's "Sky Net Project" improving operational efficiency [30][31]. Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - Kweichow Moutai's revenue grew from 109.464 billion yuan in 2019 to 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.4% [64]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue increased from 199.71 billion yuan in 2021 to 360.11 billion yuan in 2024, driven by high-end product offerings and a national expansion strategy [76][82]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital marketing and international expansion as key growth strategies for leading liquor companies [60][64].