中原期货晨会纪要-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial market, including macro - economic indicators, commodity prices, and major news events. It also offers trading suggestions for various commodities and financial instruments based on their current market conditions and fundamentals [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Indices: On May 29, 2025, major global stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ Index, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index all declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropping 0.578% to 42098.70 [2]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 2.824% to 1.41, while the US dollar index rose 0.542% to 100.44. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - Commodity Futures: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.385% to 3312.40, while LME tin dropped 2.823% to 31495.00. In the domestic market, most commodities showed price fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest - rate cuts, waiting for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer. Fed official Williams emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations stable [6][7]. - International Trade and Policy: China will implement a visa - free policy for ordinary passport holders from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026. The US - China tariff reduction may support the profit growth of relevant export industries in the second quarter, but long - term external demand remains uncertain [7]. - Industry News: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a potential 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July production on May 31. Saudi Arabia's stock market has been hit by falling oil prices, and its budget requires an oil price of $96 per barrel [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: Due to factors like the busy farming season, peanut supply is low, and prices are stable with an upward trend. However, traders are not eager to buy at high prices. It is not recommended to chase high prices in the futures market [12]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats market lacks upward momentum. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for sown areas, and Australia's oilseed - growing regions are expected to have normal weather conditions. It is advisable to view the market as weakly volatile [12]. - Sugar: The sugar futures price is in a weak - oscillating trend. Brazil's improved weather has accelerated sugarcane harvesting, and the domestic market is pressured by increased imports and uncertain consumption. It is recommended to wait for a clear direction [12]. - Corn: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The reduction of remaining grain in production areas supports prices, but the substitution effect of wheat and weak demand are concerns. It is recommended to trade within the 2300 - 2350 yuan range [12]. - Pigs: The national pig price has stabilized and rebounded. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, procurement demand has increased. The futures market is waiting for a direction [12]. - Eggs: The egg spot price is stable. Although there is short - term support from domestic sales in production areas, the long - term outlook remains weak due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather conditions [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable in the short term. The market has digested the expected June device maintenance, and non - aluminum downstream industries are restocking due to rigid demand [13]. - Urea: The domestic urea price has slightly increased, but new orders are average. High supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to monitor agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate. The inventory of copper has decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum has also declined [13][15]. - Alumina: Affected by concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the supply of alumina is expected to remain tight. The 2509 contract has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton pressure range [15]. - Steel Products: The trading volume in the steel spot market is weak, and prices are generally down. The total inventory of rebar has slightly increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The black - metal sector is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. - Ferroalloys: The decline of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has slowed down. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased last week, and the demand increased. Ferromanganese is affected by overseas ore supply expectations, and the cost center has shifted down [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production of coking coal has been restricted, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. The market is bearish, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a weak - oscillating state. The cost support has shifted down, and demand is structurally differentiated. It is recommended that short - position holders pay attention to the key support level of 59,500 yuan [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 28, A - share indices oscillated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The new consumption field has performed well, but it may face short - term pressure due to high valuations. The overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index may be oscillating consolidation, and short - term attention should be paid to the gap on May 7 [17][18]. - Options: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases to bet on an increase in volatility [19].