宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk expectations are cooling, and before the outcome of the OPEC+ production increase meeting, market confidence is still affected by expectations of increased crude oil supply, leading to overall weak oil prices [2] - Although the supply side has tightened significantly, the early - than - expected supply recovery of some PX plants, along with some units increasing or planning to increase their loads, has led to a decline in the overall de - stocking volume of PX, and the strong polyester production cut sentiment has affected market sentiment [2] - In the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN will still have support. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will continue to be in a de - stocking rhythm in the next few months [2] - The remarks of polyester factories about continued production cuts are negative for the PTA market, but the positive trend of PTA de - stocking continues, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, PTA spot prices will mainly follow the cost side [2] - The operating load of polyester filament has further declined, the overall market sales performance has been average recently, and most factories still have inventory pressure. The supply side of the market has increased slightly [2] - During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market shows an increase in quotations and samples, and some traders indicate a large potential number of orders, with rush - to - export orders driving market recovery [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. The supply side quotations are mostly stable, downstream terminal replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and market trading is in a stalemate [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - Upstream: On May 28, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $61.84 per barrel, up 1.56%; that of Brent crude oil was $64.90 per barrel, up 1.26%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $562.50 per ton, down 0.79% [1] - PX: The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China Main Port was $836.00 per ton, down 0.63%. The CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,590 yuan per ton, down 1.73% [1] - PTA: The CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,878 yuan per ton, down 0.79% [1] - PR: The CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,946 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - Downstream Fibers: On May 28, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,500 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; that of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2] Operating Conditions - On May 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 79.18%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 79.28%, unchanged; that of polyester factories was 90.69%, down 0.12% [1] Production and Sales - On May 28, 2025, the production - sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 15.00 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 52.00%, down 2.00 percentage points; that of polyester chips was 37.00%, down 2.00 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - PTA is operating in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,672 yuan per ton (- 0.60%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.13 million lots [2] - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,590 yuan per ton (- 0.66%), with an intraday trading volume of 26,940 lots. PR follows the cost operation, and the 2507 contract closed at 5,946 yuan per ton (- 0.50%), with an intraday trading volume of 38,700 lots [2]