新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货坚挺但出现松动迹象-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The spot price of aluminum is firm, but the consumption sustainability may change in June, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may face difficulties. The alumina spot price shows signs of loosening, and the social inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound soon [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Aluminum Spot: On May 28, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum Futures: On May 28, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,165 yuan/ton, closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 133,894 lots and an open interest of 203,561 lots [1] - Inventory: As of May 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 534,000 tons; as of May 28, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 377,325 tons, down 4,250 tons from the previous trading day [1] - Alumina Spot Price: On May 28, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,275 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - Alumina Futures: On May 28, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,028 yuan/ton, closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1,043,328 lots and an open interest of 371,308 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory continues to decline rapidly, and the spot premium is firm. The supply side has no negative factors, but the consumption sustainability may change in June. The aluminum rod and aluminum plate strip foil production have declined month-on-month, and the domestic market is about to enter the traditional consumption off-season. The upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may face difficulties, and the risk of cost collapse needs to be vigilant [3] - Alumina: The domestic alumina spot has transactions in Guangxi, Shandong, and Henan. The probability of a later bauxite ban in Guinea is low, and the short-term supply is sufficient. The industry profit has been significantly repaired, and the probability of the resumption of production of previously overhauled and reduced production projects is high. It is expected that the social inventory will soon stop falling and rebound [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [5]