【早间看点】印尼下调6月CPO参考价至856.38美元/吨，市场预期阿根廷大豆产量降至4870万吨-20250529

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as important fundamental information, macro news, and key information analysis. It highlights the impact of factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand on commodity prices and market trends [1][2][3][21] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude oil, NYMEX WTI crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, are presented. The exchange rate changes of multiple currencies are also provided [1] Spot Market Conditions - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given. The CNF premiums and quotes for soybean crushing in various regions are also provided [2] Important Fundamental Information - Weather: The US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - average temperatures and more rainfall from June 2 - 6. Midwest rainfall is beneficial for sown areas, with temperature recovery expected later in the week [3][5] - Policy and Trade: Malaysia is concerned about the EU's classification as a "standard risk" country. Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June. Anec predicts Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from May 25 - 31 [6][7][8] - Production and Sales: Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to decline slightly. Indian government plans to purchase major summer - sown crops at state - set prices. Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to decrease, while Australia's is expected to be 620 tons. Egypt will double the storage capacity of an important edible oil terminal [9][10][11] - Shipping: The Baltic Dry Index rose due to the increase in the Capesize Index, while the Panamax and Supramax Indexes declined [12] Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On May 28, the trading volume of edible oils decreased significantly. The trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal also changed. China allows the import of Brazilian corn distillers' grains and peanut meal [14] Macro News - US: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 97.8%. Multiple economic data, such as the Dallas Fed Services Revenue Index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, are released. The Fed's meeting minutes show a downgrade in GDP growth forecasts [17] - OPEC+: OPEC+ may discuss 2027 production benchmarks and accelerate oil production in July [18] - Eurozone: The 1 - year CPI expectation is 3.1%, higher than the estimate [18] - China: The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on May 28. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 585 million yuan [20] Key Information Analysis - The MPOB's April palm oil supply - demand report shows an increase in ending inventory, with a significant increase in production and a relatively small increase in exports, which is bearish for the market. The USDA's May soybean supply - demand report is bullish for the market, as it lowers the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in 24/25 and 25/26 [21] Capital Flows - On May 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.627 billion yuan, including 707 million yuan from the commodity futures market and 8.921 billion yuan from the stock index futures market [26]