碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比减少-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, with a decrease in the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate compared to the previous week. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and various lithium-related products have generally declined, while the production and inventory of some lithium products may change in different directions. It is recommended that investors mainly short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - On May 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 60,380 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the trading volume was 388,140 lots, down 4,329 lots; the open interest was 283,607 lots, down 10,088 lots; and the inventory was 33,854 tons, down 300 tons [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. mostly decreased on May 28, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 61,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [1]. SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of May 22, 2025, the total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 131,779 tons, a decrease of 141 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sources all showed different degrees of decline [1]. Company News - Dazhong Mining has made important breakthroughs in its "iron ore + lithium ore" dual - wheel drive strategy, with rapid progress in its Hunan lithium ore project. Sijie Co., Ltd. released new sulfide products at the 2025 China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference, with leading - level product performance and large - scale orders. Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project achieved full - process connectivity. Rio Tinto will form a joint venture with the Chilean National Mining Company to develop the Maricunga Salt Lake lithium project [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The total production capacity of Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 652,000 - ton wet - process project may reach 240,000 tons/year after it is put into operation in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the prices of domestic and imported lithium ore. The production of lithium carbonate in May may increase, and the inventory may decrease. The production of lithium hydroxide may also increase, but the export volume may be affected by negative export profits [4]. - Demand: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate may increase. The production, installation, and export of lithium batteries, as well as the production and sales of new energy vehicles in May, may all increase [5][6].