光大期货有色商品日报-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, with a 0.31% decline to $9,566 per ton; SHFE copper main contract dropped 0.33% to CNY 77,790 per ton. The US April durable goods orders' initial value of month - on - month decline was 6.3%, indicating weakened corporate investment willingness. China's industrial enterprise profits in the first four months increased by 1.4%, continuing the recovery trend. LME copper inventory decreased by 7,850 tons, while Comex copper inventory increased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. Under the relatively eased macro - environment and supported by fundamentals, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current market weakness is due to the arrival of the domestic off - season, and the ongoing de - stocking and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both trended weakly. The cost center of gravity declined, and alumina enterprises showed signs of复产. The processing was slack, and the terminal rush - export effect coexisted. The aluminum ingot turnover was smooth, and the overall de - stocking slowed down. In the short term, it was dragged down by upstream alumina and turned to a weak oscillation [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.85% to $15,095 per ton, and Shanghai nickel dropped 1.19% to CNY 119,800 per ton. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. The news of the relaxation of Indonesia's RKAB approval affected market sentiment. The stainless - steel industry chain had firm cost support but weak demand. In the new - energy sector, raw material supply increased while sulfuric acid nickel demand had no increment. The supply of primary nickel slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Affected by news, but with firm ore prices and little change in fundamentals, it would run in an oscillating manner in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fell, and SHFE copper also declined. The US economic data showed weakened corporate investment, while China's industrial enterprise profits continued to recover. LME inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and domestic inventories had different changes. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. Macro - environment was relatively eased, and fundamentals supported copper prices, making a significant decline unlikely. It might oscillate currently [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum trended weakly. The cost decreased, and alumina enterprises planned to resume production. The processing was slack, and terminal export rush coexisted. The de - stocking of aluminum ingots slowed down, and it was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and Shanghai nickel prices fell. Inventories increased. The news of Indonesia's RKAB approval relaxation affected the market. The stainless - steel industry had firm cost support but weak demand. In the new - energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. Primary nickel supply decreased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased. It would oscillate in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased slightly, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. LME and SHFE inventories decreased, while Comex inventory increased. The import loss widened [5]. - Lead: The average price of lead decreased, and the inventory decreased [5]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the inventory decreased. The cost of raw materials and the processing fee of some products changed [6]. - Nickel: The price of nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable, and the price of some new - energy products decreased [6]. - Zinc: The main contract settlement price decreased slightly, and the inventory of the previous period increased. The price of spot zinc increased [7]. - Tin: The main contract settlement price decreased, and the inventory of the previous period increased slightly. The price of tin concentrate decreased [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: The report provides charts of the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][21][23]. - LME Inventory: The report provides charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: The report provides charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: The report provides charts of the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: The report provides charts of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won many awards [51]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. As a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, he focuses on aluminum and silicon research, tracks the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [51]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. As a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, she focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [52].