海外市场点评：关税“叫停”，几多利好？

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Trump administration regarding trade negotiations, particularly following a recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that questions the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2][3] - The ruling emphasizes the constitutional principle that tax and trade regulation powers are exclusive to Congress, suggesting that the President's unilateral imposition of tariffs may threaten the traditional separation of powers in the U.S. [2][3] - The potential cancellation of tariffs could significantly impact U.S. trade negotiations, as it may reduce the incentive for trade partners to seek compromises [3][5] Legal Context - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling indicates that the President does not have the authority to impose unlimited tariffs under IEEPA, as such powers are constitutionally reserved for Congress [6] - The court found that tariffs imposed for trade deficit reasons must follow a legislative process with specific limits, which the President bypassed [6] - The ruling also stated that tariffs related to drug smuggling do not meet the criteria for emergency action under IEEPA, as drug trafficking is a long-standing issue rather than an "abnormal and special threat" [6] Economic Implications - If tariffs are fully lifted, it is expected that China's exports and nominal GDP could see a significant recovery, with potential growth in exports projected at around 4% for the year [5] - The report notes that previous concerns over tariffs have led to preemptive actions in exports, which may result in a normalization of growth rates following any tariff relief [5][8] - The overall sentiment suggests that the trade landscape may shift significantly depending on the outcomes of ongoing legal and political developments surrounding tariffs [3][5]