尿素早评：成本坍塌与需求滞后-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous decline of urea prices is mainly due to cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions. However, exports and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea is not high. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1713 yuan/ton on May 28, down 23 yuan/ton (-1.32%) from May 27; UR05 closed at 1729 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-1.09%); UR09 closed at 1790 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.32%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, the price was 1860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.54%); in Jiangsu, it was 1900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (1.06%). Prices in other regions remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 151 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from May 27; the spread of 01 - 05 was -16 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2540 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5340 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5550 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1813 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1816 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1790 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1793 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 223758 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; Medium - term: Go long on dips [1].