日度策略参考-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bearish: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - Bullish: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - Sideways: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - Gold: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - Aluminum: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - Alumina: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - Nickel: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - Tin: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - Rebar: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - Iron ore: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - Ferroalloys: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - Glass: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - Soda ash: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - Coking coal and coke: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - Soybean oil: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - Cotton: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - Corn: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - Soybeans: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - Pulp: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - Live pigs: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - Asphalt: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - Natural rubber: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - BR rubber: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - PTA: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - Short - fiber: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - Styrene: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - Urea: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - Methanol: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - PE: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - BPP: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - PVC: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - Caustic soda: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - LPG: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - Container shipping: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]