LENOVO GROUP(00992) 国信证券·2025-05-29 05:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in FY2025, achieving a total revenue of 1.384 billion, up 37.01% year-on-year, indicating a positive turnaround in net profit growth [1][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from three key growth drivers: AI PCs, smartphones, and servers, which are anticipated to sustain performance growth [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025, Lenovo's gross margin was 16.1%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the rapid increase in smartphone revenue, which has a lower margin [2][12]. - The net profit margin improved to 2.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced profitability [2][12]. Growth Drivers - AI PCs: Lenovo's PC shipments are projected to reach approximately 61.8 million units in 2024, with a global market share of 23.5%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The post-pandemic demand and the discontinuation of Windows 10 are expected to boost growth in the PC sector [3][17]. - Smartphones: Motorola, a Lenovo brand, is expected to see a 23% increase in shipments in 2024, outperforming the industry growth rate of 4%, positioning it as the seventh-largest smartphone brand globally [3][17]. - Servers: The company’s infrastructure solutions group successfully turned profitable in the second half of FY2025, with increased demand for AI servers driven by major internet companies' capital expenditures [3][17]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are 1.832 billion, and 0.13, 0.16 [4][20]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][20].