集运日报：美法院裁定特政府越权关税，今日受宏观因素或反弹，但情绪提振有限，风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US court's ruling that the Trump administration overstepped its authority in imposing tariffs may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [4]. - The spot freight rate shows a slight shock without an obvious peak - season trend, and the futures market fluctuates downward. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary of Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1719.79 points, up 18.9% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1586.12 points on May 23, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the April services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The April composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [3]. - China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [4]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 28, the main contract 2508 closed at 1949.5, down 4.08%, with a trading volume of 77,000 lots and an open interest of 43,800 lots, an increase of 594 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly test short positions when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate trend. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and for now, it is mainly in a positive - spread structure [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rallies and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5].