Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Thai Oil with a 12-month price target of Bt32.00, while the current price is Bt30.00 [5][26]. Core Insights - Thai Oil is focused on maintaining the budget and timeline for its Clean Fuel Project (CFP), with an investment budget of US$1.8 billion and a completion target by Q328 [2]. - The company is actively communicating with credit rating agencies to address concerns regarding the execution of the CFP, debt management, and support from its parent company, PTT [3]. - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) from 2025 to 2029 will primarily be allocated to the CFP, with expected cash flows from operations between US$1.2 billion to US$1.7 billion [4]. Financial Metrics - Revenue projections show a decline from Bt529.6 billion in 2022 to an estimated Bt372.9 billion in 2025, followed by a gradual increase to Bt588.3 billion by 2029 [8]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is Bt4.81, with a slight decrease to Bt4.65 in 2026, and a recovery to Bt4.78 in 2027 [6]. - The net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to be 5.8x for 2025, indicating a high level of leverage [5]. Market Performance - The average daily trading volume is approximately 23.6 million shares, with a market capitalization of Bt67.0 billion (US$2.05 billion) [5]. - The forecasted stock return is 10.7%, combining a price appreciation of 6.7% and a dividend yield of 4.0% [9]. Company Overview - Thai Oil operates a refinery with a capacity of 275,000 barrels per day, accounting for 25% of Thailand's total refining capacity, and has a high upgrading capacity-to-refining capacity ratio of 56% [10].
Thai Oil：泰国石油2025年AIC：清洁燃料项目和评级为主要讨论话题-20250529
Ubs Securities·2025-05-29 05:45