瑞银快照：莱曼医疗保健2025财年业绩

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ryman Healthcare with a 12-month price target of NZ$4.70, while the current price is NZ$2.41 [10][27]. Core Insights - Ryman Healthcare's sales volumes and free cash flow (FCF) exceeded UBS estimates, but the FY26E sales guidance is below consensus expectations [2][7]. - The company achieved a total build rate of 950 units, slightly above UBS estimates of 937, and sold 416 new units, a 7% year-over-year increase [4][7]. - The average new unit price increased by 4% year-over-year to NZ$974k, while the average resale price rose by 1% to NZ$735k [4][7]. - Ryman Healthcare's net debt decreased to NZ$1.67 billion from NZ$2.51 billion in FY24, and the net tangible assets (NTA) per share fell to NZ$4.18 from NZ$5.01 in FY24 [4][7]. Financial Performance - Care and village fees reached NZ$571 million, a 12% increase year-over-year, surpassing UBS estimates of NZ$559 million [3]. - Deferred Management Fees were NZ$155 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, compared to UBS estimates of NZ$138 million [3]. - Operating expenses rose by 6% year-over-year to NZ$751 million, exceeding UBS estimates of NZ$700 million [3]. - The FCF for FY25 was -NZ$94 million, an improvement from -NZ$187 million in FY24, and better than UBS's estimate of -NZ$101 million [3][7]. Guidance - For FY26E, Ryman Healthcare projects total ORA sales between 1,100 and 1,300 units, significantly below UBS's estimate of 1,592 and consensus of 1,489 [6][7]. - The total build rate for FY26E is expected to be between 226 and 330 units, again below UBS's estimate of 252 and consensus of 302 [6][7]. Valuation - The price target of NZ$4.70 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [5][14].