欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第90期）-20250529

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Quotation Briefing (Issue No. 90, 2025) [1] Release Date - May 29, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core View - The MSR absorbs auction quotas again, and EUA strengthens against the trend [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price is 70.54 euros/ton (-1.36%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.87 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price is 72.07 euros/ton (0.43%), and the trading volume is 24,200 lots (-0.08) [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that the net long positions of investment funds increase by 1.026 million tons [2] - The European Commission announces the annual EUETS surplus indicator (TNAC). In 2024, the TNAC is about 1.148 billion tons. From September 2025 to August 2026, about 275 million tons of quotas will be extracted from the auction volume to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) [2] - The US Federal Trade Court rules that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs on imported products is illegal and gives the government 10 days to revoke all tariffs [2] Bearish Factors - No new bearish factors [2] Other Information - Russia proposes to hold the second round of direct Russia - Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025, clarifying Russia's conditions for a lasting peace agreement (including halting NATO's eastward expansion) [3] Data Tables and Charts Chart 1 - Displays EUA's latest auction market information including CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction volume, bid coverage ratio, and auction revenue [4] Chart 2 - Shows the seasonal chart of EUA auction price trends [4] Chart 3 - Presents the seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio [4] Chart 4 - Provides EUA's futures and spot market information such as futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, spot settlement price, spot trading volume, container shipping carbon cost, and freight ratio [5] Chart 5 - Illustrates EUA's futures and spot prices and basis [5] Chart 6 - Displays the seasonal chart of December contract open interest [5]