“对等关税禁令”对市场影响几何？

Group 1: Event Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority[9] - The court stated that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the President's emergency powers do not override this authority[9] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the court's ruling, U.S. stock futures rose significantly, leading to a positive opening for A-shares on May 29[5] - Despite the initial market optimism, analysts caution against excessive optimism regarding the long-term impact of the ruling[5] Group 3: Legal and Political Context - Historically, U.S. district courts have limited power to block executive orders, and the federal government can appeal or delay enforcement of court rulings[10] - The recent passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in the House, with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes, reflects challenges to the U.S. constitutional system of checks and balances[17] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy maintains a "high-low switch" perspective, favoring technology stocks while advising against chasing high valuations in new consumer sectors[18] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves in safe assets (gold, bonds, military, nuclear, rare earths) and technology stocks during market fluctuations[18] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in domestic industrial policy implementation and increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy[21] - There is a possibility of tighter liquidity in overseas markets, which could impact investment strategies[21]