广金期货策略早餐-20250529

Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]