地方债享受久期行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading [12][20][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.05 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 43% and refinancing special bonds accounting for 21% [12]. - Among the bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [12]. - As of May 23, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local government bond stock size, with 3.36 trillion, 3.29 trillion, and 3.09 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock size of over 2 trillion yuan [12]. 3.2 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds were issued with a total of 248.521 billion yuan, including 107.564 billion yuan of new special bonds and 48.96 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [20]. - In terms of the use of raised funds, "ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bonds [20]. - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 3.87% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [20]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 32.61%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago [29]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 18.39BP, and the spread of 20 - year local bonds to the same - term treasury bonds slightly narrowed to 7.53BP [29]. - Last week, 8 provinces had new issuances. Zhejiang had the largest new local bond issuance this month, reaching 70.482 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the 7 - 10 - year and 10 - 20 - year terms. Shandong followed with 65.096 billion yuan, mainly in the 7 - 10 - year term [37]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 23, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.87%, with a spread of 14.92BP to the same - term treasury bonds, at the 29.1% quantile since 2024. The price spread quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 53.6% and 80.4% respectively [38]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term were differentiated. The turnover rate of varieties within 10 years increased compared to two weeks ago, while that of varieties over 10 years decreased. The highest weekly turnover rate was still for varieties within 10 years, at 0.98% [44]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had the most trading volume last week, with 178 transactions. Sichuan, Guangdong, and Zhejiang also had over 100 transactions [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local bonds was 16.3 years, and the average yield was 2.16% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary trading, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies were still the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 49.095 billion yuan, of which the purchase proportion of varieties over 20 - 30 years reached 47.06%. Other institutions were all net sellers [44].