转债分析框架（一）：如何看懂可转债

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the convertible bond market will generally trend upward in the future. The equity market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and since May, the implementation of counter - cyclical financial policies and the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions have boosted market risk appetite, supporting the convertible bond market. In terms of supply and demand, the recent supply of convertible bonds is limited, while the demand remains strong in a low - interest - rate environment. Regarding valuation, the current valuation of convertible bonds is below the historical median since 2021, offering relative value and limited motivation for active valuation compression [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Overview - Basic Concepts and Terms: Convertible bonds are special corporate bonds that can be converted into common stocks. Their issuance terms include basic elements, conversion terms, pure - bond terms, and additional terms. Key basic elements to focus on are the underlying stock information, issuance scale, and credit rating. Since 2020, most newly - issued convertible bonds have been small - scale and medium - to - low - rated. The conversion terms determine the conversion value, the pure - bond terms determine the pure - bond value, and the additional terms include call, put, and downward - adjustment clauses [1][8][10]. - Characteristics: Convertible bonds combine equity and bond features, resulting in a unique asymmetric price pattern. The pure - bond value limits the downside risk, while the equity feature provides upward potential as the underlying stock price rises [1][25]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Overview - Historical Evolution and Current Status: The Chinese convertible bond market originated in 1992 with the issuance of "Ba'an Convertible Bond" but remained small until 2017. After 2017, due to tightened private placements and rising credit - bond default risks, the market expanded rapidly. As of May 14, 2025, there are 495 convertible bonds with a total outstanding balance of 687.186 billion yuan [1][26][30]. - Issuance, Listing, and Exit: The issuance and listing process involves multiple steps, with an average cycle of about one year. Most convertible bonds are redeemed and converted into stocks upon exit [1][46][49]. - Supply and Demand: Since 2024, the supply of convertible bonds has contracted, with negative net financing. It is estimated that there will be about 120.8 billion yuan of new supply in the next year. The main institutional investors are funds, enterprise annuities, and insurance institutions. Although investors' holdings have slightly decreased this year, demand remains strong compared to the supply decline. Among them, public funds are more active, preferring large - scale and high - rated convertible bonds, mainly in the banking, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals industries [1][51][59]. - Secondary - Market Performance: Since September 2024, convertible bond prices have been rising, and as of May 14, 2025, they have outperformed both the equity and bond markets. Valuation is below the historical median since 2021. Trading has been active, with increasing monthly turnover and rising turnover rates. The risk - return profile of convertible bonds lies between pure bonds and equities [2][83][89]. 3.3 Driving Factors of Convertible Bond Prices The rise in the underlying stock price is the key driver of convertible bond price increases, but its impact varies depending on the bond's equity and bond characteristics. For equity - biased convertible bonds, the underlying stock price and conversion premium rate are important determinants, with the underlying stock price being the core variable. For bond - biased convertible bonds, the bond floor provides strong support, and price increases come from significant rises in the underlying stock price and clause - related games [3][93][96]. 3.4 Outlook for Convertible Bonds The report expects the convertible bond market to trend upward. The equity market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and the supply - demand imbalance and relatively low valuation will support the market's upward movement [4][99].