Changzhou Kaidi Electrical (605288) Huaxin Securities·2025-05-29 07:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The company has announced a 2025 equity incentive plan, aiming to enhance employee motivation and align interests with company growth [13]. - The company has a strong foothold in the linear drive market, with over 30 years of experience and a global market share exceeding 30% in electric sofa push rods [4][5]. - The linear drive market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size reaching approximately 151.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [7]. - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its core technology in linear drives, which is essential for robotic joints [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been engaged in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems since its establishment in 1992, with significant international expansion efforts since 2010 [4]. - The company has established production bases in Vietnam and North America, with exports to the U.S. expected to account for 7.5-8% of total sales in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth from 2021 to 2024, with revenues of 17.2 billion yuan in 2021, declining to 11.7 billion yuan in 2022, and recovering to 13.4 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 0.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 19.4% compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased operational costs [5][6]. Market Potential - The linear drive market is expected to see continued growth, particularly in smart home and office applications, with the global smart home market projected to grow from 84.5 billion USD in 2022 to 138.9 billion USD by 2026 [7][8]. - The automotive electric tailgate market is also expanding, with a projected market size of approximately 9.63 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 34.15% from 2019 to 2023 [11]. Research and Development - The company has a robust R&D team of over 300 engineers and holds numerous patents related to linear drive technology, which positions it well for future innovations [14]. - The company is focusing on developing its capabilities in the humanoid robot sector, utilizing its expertise in linear drive systems [15]. Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 15.2 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected to reach 1.0 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan [16][18].