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有色金属:海外季报:Kazatomprom 2025Q1铀产量(100%基础)环比减少14%至5633吨U3O8,2025年计划产量仍为25000 - 26500吨(100%基础)
HUAXI Securities·2025-05-29 07:35

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a forecasted performance that will exceed the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more [4]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the uranium production volume was 5,633 tons U3O8, a decrease of 14% compared to Q4 2024, but an increase of 11% year-on-year from Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The group’s uranium sales volume for Q1 2025 was 2,560 tons U3O8, down 49% from Q4 2024 and down 7% from Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The average realized price for the group in Q1 2025 was 54.70perpound,adecreaseof2754.70 per pound, a decrease of 27% from Q4 2024 and a decrease of 13% from Q1 2024 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - Q1 2025 uranium production (100% basis) was 5,633 tons U3O8, down 14% from 6,519 tons in Q4 2024, and up 11% from 5,077 tons in Q1 2024 [1][8]. - Q1 2025 uranium sales volume (100% basis) was 2,560 tons U3O8, down 49% from 5,030 tons in Q4 2024, and down 7% from 2,752 tons in Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The average realized price for the group in Q1 2025 was 54.70 per pound, down 27% from 74.92inQ42024,anddown1374.92 in Q4 2024, and down 13% from 62.53 in Q1 2024 [2][8]. 2025 Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 guidance with expected uranium production of 25,000 - 26,500 tons (100% basis) and 13,000 - 14,000 tons (attributable basis) [3][11]. - The group sales volume is projected to be between 17,500 - 18,500 tons, with KAP sales volume expected to be between 14,000 - 15,000 tons [5][11]. Company Developments - The company signed a new supply agreement with European utilities, enhancing its position in the global uranium market and supporting energy security in Europe [6]. - A dividend proposal of 1,264.12 KZT per ordinary share has been suggested, amounting to approximately 327.9 billion KZT, which represents 75% of the free cash flow [7].