MEITUAN(03690) 国信证券·2025-05-29 07:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Meituan achieved an adjusted profit of 10.949 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%, surpassing market expectations [1][9]. - The core local business revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan, growing by 17.8% year-on-year, slightly above Bloomberg's forecast [2][11]. - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and the operating loss improved compared to previous periods [3][12]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to increased competition and promotional activities [4][19]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, committing to invest 1 billion USD in Brazil over the next five years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit of 10.567 billion yuan, up 102.8% [1][9]. - The adjusted operating profit margin was 12.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percentage points [1][9]. Core Local Business - The core local business generated revenue of 64.325 billion yuan, with significant contributions from delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services [2][11]. - The operating profit for this segment was 13.491 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 21.0%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [2][11]. New Business Development - New business operations reported a revenue of 22.232 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement in loss rate [3][12]. - The report notes that the Keeta model continues to show good growth, and the company is focused on long-term capability building [3][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that increased investment in core operations and international expansion will impact profit margins in the short term [4][20]. - The company is expected to face competitive pressures, but its long-term competitive advantages remain strong [5][20]. Valuation and Estimates - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 44.7 billion, 58.7 billion, and 71.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 13.2%, 10.1%, and 8.7% [5][20]. - The report maintains a favorable view on Meituan's long-term growth potential, supported by its operational capabilities and market positioning [5][20].