拼多多（PDD.O）2025Q1 财报点评：投入加大叠加关税影响，Q1 业绩承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to increased investments and tariff impacts, with total revenue of 957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was below market expectations. The decline in transaction service revenue growth was a significant factor [1][8]. - Online marketing service revenue reached 487 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in GMV and advertising monetization in the domestic market [1][8]. - The company is focusing on long-term ecological development at the expense of short-term profits, with a significant adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 due to tariff impacts on TEMU GMV growth and an increase in the share of semi-managed models [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for the quarter was 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the full burden of shipping costs in the western regions and a structural decline in high-margin commission ratios [2][9]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was 183 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 19.1%. Non-GAAP net profit was 169 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year, reflecting a significant decrease in interest income [2][9]. - The company has launched a 100 billion yuan support plan to enhance merchant incentives, which may continue to pressure profitability in the near to medium term [3][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4329 billion yuan, 4994 billion yuan, and 5622 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same period are 841 billion yuan, 1076 billion yuan, and 1259 billion yuan, with adjustments of 35%, 34%, and 32% respectively [3][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 12x, 9x, and 8x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][10].