2025年4月高收益债策略月报：债券收益稳定性较好，博弈阶段避免过度下沉-20250529

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stability of bond yields and suggests avoiding excessive downward adjustments during the current market gaming phase [4][8][26] - It highlights the scarcity of high-yield assets and the importance of balancing risk and return through meticulous selection of bonds [4][10][12] Market Performance - In April, the CCXI high-yield bond passive net price index rose to 99.75, an increase of 0.215% from the previous month [5][13] - The high-yield bond market saw only one new issuance, totaling 400 million yuan, indicating a continued low level of trading activity [22][23] - The total transaction volume for high-yield bonds was 15.064 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.216 billion yuan from the previous month, reflecting a generally sluggish market [22][24] Sector Analysis - High-yield city investment bonds are under pressure due to the "control increase and stabilize" policy, with a focus on debt resolution and transformation [10][11] - The real estate sector remains under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but the recovery is expected to take time as new housing sales declined by 2.8% in the first four months [12][12] - The report notes that the high-yield real estate bond index saw a significant increase, but caution is advised due to the lack of substantial fundamental improvements [12][12] Issuance and Trading Conditions - The report indicates that the issuance of high-yield bonds remains low, with only one new bond issued in April, reflecting a challenging environment for new financing [22][23] - The trading conditions for high-yield bonds are characterized by a significant portion of transactions occurring below estimated net prices, with 71.41% of trades falling into this category [34][34] - The report also highlights a decrease in the proportion of low-priced transactions, indicating a slight easing of valuation pressure [34][34]