Big Yellow (BYG.L): 需求环境低迷；中性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Big Yellow (BYG.L) with a 12-month price target of 1,110p, implying a 12.5% upside from the current price of 987p [1]. Core Insights - Revenue growth is expected to decelerate, with occupancy forecasted to remain stable at around 80.3% to 81% for FY26E and FY27E, compared to 79.1% in FY24/25. Rate growth has moderated to 3.2% year-on-year, down from a peak of 8.6% [2][3]. - The balance sheet is solid, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1x, an interest coverage ratio of 6.1x, and a loan-to-value ratio of 12.8%, the lowest in the sector. The development pipeline includes 14 sites, with 9 under construction, expected to generate a net operating income (NOI) of £36.6 million [3]. - Valuation appears fair, trading at a 6.3% earnings yield, above its long-term average of 4.6%, and at a 31% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), below its long-term average of 0% [4]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from £177.8 million in FY25 to £216.5 million in FY28, with adjusted EPS estimates for FY26E to FY28E showing minimal changes of 0% to -2% [1][14]. - The forecasted EPS for FY26E is 59.55p, with a dividend yield expected to increase from 4.2% in FY25 to 5.2% in FY28 [11][14]. Financial Metrics - The report highlights that the average net achieved rent per square foot has declined to 3.2% year-on-year, down from a peak of 8.6% [20]. - The company’s leverage is noted to be the lowest among its peers, with a net debt to property value ratio of 13% [22]. Market Context - The demand environment remains subdued, with forward demand indicators showing a 3% year-on-year decline in prospect numbers for FY24/25 and a decrease in Google searches for self-storage options [2][18]. - The broader UK economic context is characterized by low growth and global macroeconomic uncertainty, which may continue to impact occupancy and revenue growth [2][25].