Changzhou Kaidi Electrical (605288) Huaxin Securities·2025-05-29 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The company has launched a 2025 stock incentive plan, aiming to align employee interests with company growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth of 6% annually from 2025 to 2027 [3][13]. - The company has a strong foothold in the linear drive market, with over 30 years of experience and a global market share exceeding 30% in electric sofa push rods [4]. - The linear drive market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size reaching approximately 151.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [7]. - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its core technology in linear drives, which is essential for robotic joints [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1992, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with applications in various sectors including furniture and automotive [4]. - The company has made significant strides in international markets, establishing subsidiaries in North America and Europe, and has a production base in Vietnam [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth from 2021 to 2024, with revenues of 17.2 billion yuan in 2021, declining to 11.7 billion yuan in 2022, and recovering to 13.4 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 0.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 19.4% compared to the previous year [5][18]. Market Potential - The smart home market is expected to grow from 84.5 billion USD in 2022 to 138.9 billion USD by 2026, with a CAGR of 10.4%, driving demand for linear drive systems [7]. - The market for electric tailgates in the automotive sector is projected to reach approximately 9.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 34.15% from 2019 to 2023 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The global linear drive market is concentrated, with leading companies including Linak and Dewert, while the company holds an 8% market share [9]. - Domestic brands are expected to gain market share through advantages in production capacity and customer responsiveness [10]. Research and Development - The company has a robust R&D team of over 300 engineers and holds numerous patents related to linear drive technology [14]. - The company is positioned to leverage its technological expertise to enter the humanoid robot market, aiming for a second growth curve [15]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 15.2 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.0 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan [16][19].