瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Domestic Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,200 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 90 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 207,900 lots, up 4,339 lots. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 79 yuan, up 19 yuan; the main contract position was 352,989 lots, down 18,319 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 7,831 lots, up 5,153 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19, up 0.10 [2]. - International Futures: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 54,600 tons, down 4,250 tons; the three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,465 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 377,325 tons, down 4,250 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 20,370 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 180 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of alumina was 296 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points; alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 50.50 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points; the aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.11%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 15.01%, down 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 10.01%, up 0.0004 percentage points; the option call - put ratio was 0.67, down 0.0191 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, He Lifeng, met with Dan Simkowitz, the co - president of Morgan Stanley, stating that China will unswervingly promote high - level opening - up and welcome US financial institutions to participate in the construction and development of the Chinese capital market. - Zhang Guoqing, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, emphasized during a research trip in Shanghai the need to build a good ecological environment for the platform economy and maintain a fair and orderly market environment. - From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26,275.5 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; the total profit was 134.914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; the taxes payable were 203.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. At the end of April, the asset - liability ratio was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - The Fed meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty faced by the economy was higher than before, and it was appropriate to be cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies to become clearer before considering action. - Fed official Williams said that it was crucial to keep inflation expectations stable. - Fed's Kashkari revealed that there was a "debate" within the Fed. - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.358 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.23 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 726,000 units [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The alumina main contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decrease in positions, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The raw material supply of bauxite in China might increase slightly, and the alumina supply was expected to rise slightly as some previously - reduced - production enterprises might resume production. The demand for alumina remained at a high level due to the stable production of electrolytic aluminum. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract showed a volatile trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively sufficient, while the demand growth slowed down due to seasonal factors. The industry inventory was still at a low level and might accumulate slightly if seasonal consumption weakened. The option market sentiment was bearish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were near the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2].