Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-29 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 29, the RB2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The US Federal Court blocked Trump's April 2 tariff policy, which alleviated the pessimistic market sentiment. Although the approaching flood season in the South and the upcoming college entrance examination may affect demand, the released data showed a decline in inventory and an increase in apparent demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct light - position intraday short - term trading before the holiday and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,978 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position was 2,377,320 lots, down 64,068 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 66,278 lots, up 64,122 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,776 tons, down 1,199 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 132 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 132 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 737 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.8783 million tons, down 1.7826 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 733,000 tons, up 80,500 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.609 million tons, down 26,200 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 693,000 tons, down 52,100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.67%, down 0.46%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.30%, down 0.44% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2551 million tons, down 59,700 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 49.44%, down 1.30%. The weekly inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.8646 million tons, down 13,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.9459 million tons, down 218,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.00%, up 2.08%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 994,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.86, down 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 4.00%, down 0.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 10.30%, down 0.40%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, down 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, down 48.39 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 417.03 million square meters, up 4.55 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel on May 29, the actual output of rebar was 2.2551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 59,700 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,700 tons; the total inventory was 5.8105 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,700 tons; the apparent demand was 2.4868 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,500 tons. The terminal demand was better than expected, and the apparent demand for construction steel increased after a decline. The US Federal Court on May 28 blocked the tariff policy announced by Trump on April 2 and ruled that his act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US was an over - stepping of power [2].