中美发展差异及美债ETF为何能穿越凛冬：美国债券ETF发展启示录

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development of China's bond ETFs has gone through three stages and is currently in a period of rapid growth, with significant potential for further development. By referring to the US experience, measures such as enriching product supply, promoting pension investment, encouraging institutional investors, and applying innovative strategies can be taken to unlock this potential [1]. - The development of US bond ETFs has also experienced three stages and is now in a mature growth phase. Extreme economic environments, credit premium advantages, globalization opportunities, mature market mechanisms, and innovative strategies have contributed to their development [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Bond ETF Development History and Current Situation - Development Stages: China's bond ETFs have gone through three stages: the initial stage from 2013 - 2018, the slow - growth stage from 2019 - 2021, and the rapid - growth stage from 2021 to the present. As of May 9, 2025, there are 29 bond ETFs with a total scale of 253.129 billion yuan [6][7]. - Product Structure: As of Q1 2025, the scale ranking of different types of bond ETFs is credit bond ETF > policy - financial bond ETF > convertible bond ETF > treasury bond ETF > local government bond ETF. Interest - rate bond and credit bond ETFs account for 80.09% of the total scale. In terms of duration, the products with durations of 0 - 3 years and 7 - 10 years account for about 73.9% [12]. - Investor Structure: As of March 31, 2025, institutional investors hold 85.5% of the total asset - net - value scale, and individual investors hold 14.5%. Different types of investors have different preferences for bond ETFs. For example, insurance funds, securities investment funds, and other institutions mainly invest in policy - financial bond ETFs [20][32]. - Investment by Wealth Management Products: As of Q1 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs in the top - ten holdings of wealth management products is 598 million yuan, with credit bond ETFs having the largest scale at 257 million yuan, accounting for 42.95%. Among 61 asset - management institutions, 20 hold bond ETFs, and the top three in terms of holding scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, ICBC Wealth Management, and Huaxia Wealth Management [35][39]. 3.2 US Bond ETF Development History and Current Situation - Development Stages: The development of US bond ETFs has gone through three stages: the germination stage from 2002 - 2006, the high - speed development stage from 2007 - 2009, and the mature growth stage from 2009 to the present. As of the end of 2024, the total asset scale of US bond ETFs is 1.8 trillion US dollars, accounting for 17% of the total US ETF scale [42][43]. - Market Structure: According to the Morningstar Category classification, US bond ETFs are divided into taxable bond funds and municipal bond funds. The four largest - scale bond ETFs are the overall bond market ETF, US government bond ETF, corporate bond ETF, and municipal bond ETF. The overall bond market ETF has a relatively high single - product scale, while different types of municipal bond ETFs have relatively small product quantities and scales [46][47]. - Product Characteristics: In terms of duration, products with durations of 3 - 7 years and 0 - 3 years have relatively large scales, accounting for about 78.60%. The average fee rate varies greatly, with the lowest being 0.17% for target - date bonds and the highest being 0.84% for non - traditional bonds. In terms of management style, as of April 30, 2025, index - type bond funds account for 44%, and actively managed bond funds account for 56% [52][56]. 3.3 Analysis of the Development Drivers of US Bond ETFs - Macroeconomic Environment: During the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis from 2007 - 2009, the continuously decreasing federal funds target rate, loose monetary environment, and investors' risk - aversion sentiment provided impetus for the development of the US bond market and bond ETFs. The scale of US bond ETFs soared from 34.6 billion US dollars to 107 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 76% [65]. - Performance in the Low - Interest - Rate Fluctuation Period: From 2010 - 2015, the scale of US bond ETFs continued to rise. Corporate bond ETFs have high credit premiums due to the high proportion of A, BBB, and BB - rated bonds in their underlying assets, and their average return rate from 2010 - 2015 was 5.12%. Global bond and emerging - market bond ETFs were more favored during this period, and the US government bond ETF had a relatively high return rate, with its scale increasing from 16.4 billion US dollars to 62.3 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.63% [68][77][78]. - Regulatory Policies, Trading Mechanisms, and Allocation - Oriented Demand: The US regulatory policies for ETFs have been continuously liberalized, with both openness and standardization. The operation mechanism is mature, and the market liquidity is good. The physical subscription and redemption mechanism operates smoothly. US investors are mainly driven by allocation - oriented demand, with long - term funds such as pensions being the main source of funds [81][82][84]. - Application of Strategic Beta Innovation Strategy: The Strategic - beta strategy has been applied to the US bond ETF field. The iShares US Fixed Income Balanced Risk ETF, launched in February 2015, seeks to balance interest - rate risk and credit risk, bringing higher risk - adjusted returns compared to traditional bond ETFs [86]. 3.4 Enlightenment of the Development History of US Bond ETFs to China's Bond ETFs - Large Development Space: There is a significant gap between China and the US in terms of the overall ETF volume and the proportion of bond ETFs. In the current low - interest - rate market environment, bond ETFs have great development potential [89]. - Enrich Product Supply: Expand high - yield and global - allocation products, such as expanding credit - sinking category ETFs, introducing global bond funds, and innovating underlying assets [91]. - Promote Pension Investment: Encourage more pension funds to enter the bond ETF field to drive long - term asset allocation and improve market maturity [94]. - Encourage Institutional Investors: Promote bank wealth management and bank self - operated funds to invest in bond ETFs, as bond ETFs have investment advantages for banks, such as lower risk - capital occupation, tax advantages, and being useful for liquidity management [95][96]. - Innovate Strategy Application: Apply the Strategic Beta strategy to build differentiated competitiveness, including strengthening quantitative capabilities, exploring "semi - active bond ETFs", and developing localized factor strategies [97].