Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-29 09:27Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan production area, raw material purchase prices have been significantly adjusted downward due to the drag of the spot market. In the Hainan production area, precipitation has continued to disrupt the new rubber supply, which has been slow. The raw material circulation in the market is tight, and local concentrated latex processing plants have order fulfillment needs, so they are in a state of competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Last week, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port reduced their inventories, while the general trade warehouses increased their inventories, resulting in a slight overall inventory increase. Overseas supply arrivals continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in bonded warehouse receipts. After the decline in rubber prices, most tire companies made sporadic purchases based on their rigid demand, but the overall volume was relatively limited. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase last week, with most companies' production schedules gradually stabilizing, but some companies slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,400 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was -830 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 335 yuan/ton; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 110 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 10,624 lots to 181,089 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,417 lots to 52,829 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -24,360 lots, with an increase of 539 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -492 lots, with an increase of 3,611 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 230 tons to 198,850 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 3,528 tons to 16,733 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai - standard STR20 was 1,730 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian - standard SMR20 was 1,730 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 670 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,720 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 680 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -30 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 275 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,366 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 428 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was -214 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 763 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price for smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 68.55 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price for rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 1.18 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price for rubber latex of Thai raw rubber was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, with no daily change; the market reference price for cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 51.6 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 66 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -112 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 59 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.59%, with a daily increase of 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.5%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.05%, with a daily decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.51%, with a daily increase of 0.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 25 - May 31, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in Laos and Vietnam was above the medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In most areas south of the equator, the rainfall was below the medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons, or 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 90,500 tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 524,100 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2]