东兴证券晨报-20250529

Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices rising while Brent crude oil prices fell month-on-month, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. refining capacity utilization has improved, while gasoline and distillate fuel supply has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply environment [2] - The report notes a significant decline in China's crude oil import and export volumes, with exports experiencing a notable drop [2] Oil and Petrochemical Industry - WTI crude oil prices increased month-on-month, while Brent crude oil prices decreased, and ESPO crude oil spot prices rose [2] - OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have also seen a decline [2] - In the U.S., refining capacity utilization has increased, but the supply of finished gasoline and distillate fuel products has decreased month-on-month, along with a reduction in inventory levels [2] - U.S. crude oil imports rose, while both imports and exports from China fell, with exports seeing a significant decline [2] Monetary Market Analysis - The central bank has continued to inject liquidity, but the market liquidity has not improved as expected, leading to a slight increase in interest rates [3] - Deposit rates are on a downward trend, reflecting increased efforts to reduce bank funding costs [3] - The report anticipates that deposit rates will continue to decline in the medium to long term, although short-term pressures may arise due to month-end and tax payment demands [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience controlled adjustments in the second quarter, with upward adjustments presenting trading opportunities [4] - The report maintains a view of downward pressure on bond yields in the medium to long term, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and the need for policy support [4] Stock Recommendations - The report lists several recommended stocks for June, including Zhongguang Nuclear Technology, Shanjin International, and others, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [5][9] - Specific companies are noted for their unique advantages, such as Zhongguang Nuclear Technology facing short-term pressure but positioning for future growth [9] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intense price competition, with a year-on-year increase in package volume of 21.6% in Q1 2025, but a continued decline in single-package revenue [11] - Major players like Zhongtong and Yunda are increasing their market share, intensifying the competitive landscape [11] - The report indicates that the price war is leading to a decline in overall profitability, with significant differences in net profit per package among companies [12][14] - The industry is at a cyclical low, with expectations of a rebound in profitability once the price war eases [15]