低价补货，刚需采购为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand side is marginally weakening, with downstream purchasers making rigid - need purchases and buying at low prices. As the demand enters the off - season, the downstream's ability to absorb is not strong. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses copper prices, but the copper ore smelting end is tight. The macro - environment presents a mix of long and short factors, leading to narrow fluctuations in the copper market. It is expected that the copper market will mainly oscillate at a high level, awaiting new market drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened low, then fluctuated and turned positive. Antofagasta offered a copper concentrate TC/RC of -$15 per ton to Chinese smelters this week, indicating a long - term expectation of loose supply in the copper ore segment. The US dollar index rebounded from a low this week, suppressing the upward trend of copper prices. As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound. Although the TC/RC fees are still negative, the decline has significantly slowed. In April, the output of refined copper was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper. After the recent decline in copper prices, the downstream's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, but due to the approaching holiday and the consumption off - season, this enthusiasm is not sustainable [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The market opened low, fluctuated downward, and closed lower, at 78,400. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,017 lots, an increase of 1,825 lots; the short positions were 120,398 lots, an increase of 4,197 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 130 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On May 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,633 per ton, and the spot premium was $49 per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound [4]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 154,300 tons, a slight decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 179,700 short tons, an increase of 30,400 short tons from the previous period [8].