从关税武器化、主权基金到全球资产变局：美国国家资本崛起下的债务危机化解路径

Group 1 - The original framework of the U.S. relies on the collaboration of the state, enterprises, and capital to extract excess profits globally, which supports the dollar credit system and maintains economic growth through debt expansion [2][7][14] - The conflict of interests among the state, enterprises, and capital has led to the breakdown of the original collaborative mechanism, necessitating a shift in strategy to address the debt crisis and ensure supply chain security [2][24] - The dual strategic goals of U.S. tariff policies are to increase federal revenue and restructure global supply chains while addressing the structural contradictions between capital power and national sovereignty [2][30][34] Group 2 - The U.S. is on the verge of a "debt reduction" strategy, aiming to reconstruct its national balance sheet through "debt reduction + asset enhancement" [2][52] - The short-term focus on tariffs aims to suppress consumption and reduce debt, while the long-term goal is to expand national capital assets [2][34][84] - The financial capital's short-term profit-seeking behavior hinders the U.S.'s long-term strategic goals, as Wall Street promotes asset-light models and stock buybacks, limiting capital expenditure in the real economy [2][23][34] Group 3 - The U.S. seeks to break the old order through tariff wars, forcing multinational capital to withdraw from arbitrage trading and weakening financial capital's control over supply chains [2][57] - A new framework is proposed, utilizing sovereign wealth funds (SWF) to construct a new system that channels tariff revenues and foreign capital into strategic industries [2][73][84] - Investment strategies vary based on tariff levels, with a focus on gold and technology stocks during high tariffs, and cyclical goods and core assets when trade policies ease [2][30][84] Group 4 - The U.S. is experiencing a shift in its operational model, with tariffs serving as a tool for "creative destruction" to address the structural issues of capital power and national sovereignty [2][50][57] - The establishment of a sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key mechanism to manage national capital and address trade imbalances [2][75][84] - The SWF is expected to play a crucial role in directing investments into strategic sectors, thereby enhancing domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign capital [2][84][86]