日内上探承压，尾盘收跌

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]