苯乙烯日报：特朗普关税政策遭美法院“叫停”，地缘因素反复-20250529

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pure benzene is gradually recovering, with expected simultaneous growth in supply and demand and an increasing trend in social inventory The current suspension of tariff imposition is favorable for terminal trade, but there is a need to be vigilant about potential reversals due to Trump's government appeal [3] - The overall supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to rise slightly on a low - level basis The overall supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening In June and mid - late June, styrene production is expected to increase significantly If the counter - tariffs stop, downstream demand will improve significantly, and it may fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - Price: On May 28, the main styrene contract closed down 1.06% at 7068 yuan/ton, with a basis of 647 yuan/ton (- 86 yuan/ton) [2] - Cost: On May 28, the main Brent crude oil contract closed at 60.9 dollars/barrel (+ 0.6 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 63.6 dollars/barrel (- 1.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5885 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 18.6 tons (- 2.6 tons), a 12.3% month - on - month decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 7.5 tons (+ 2.3 tons), a 43.2% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2] - Supply: Styrene maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in mid - late June, with an expected increase in supply Currently, affected by some device maintenance, the weekly styrene output decreased 2.8% to 31.7 tons (- 0.9 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.3% (- 2.0%) [2] - Demand: The operating rates of downstream 3S varied Among them, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 59.5% (- 2.8%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 60.9% (- 6.5%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.7% (+ 2.6%), with a significant decline in the operating rate [2] (2) Viewpoints - Pure Benzene: Recently, with the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the expected completion of maintenance and resumption of devices such as CNOOC Huizhou and Jinxi Petrochemical at the end of May, the supply of the pure benzene market is gradually recovering Meanwhile, the import volume of foreign pure benzene has increased, and some downstream enterprises also plan to increase their operating loads It is expected that the supply and demand of pure benzene will increase simultaneously, and the social inventory has an increasing trend The pure benzene port inventory has risen to 14.3 tons (month - on - month + 1.5 tons) [3] - Styrene: With the recovery of profits, the 450,000 - ton/year styrene device of Shenghong Refining and Chemical plans to restart and is expected to be put into production in mid - June; Hengli's maintenance device may also resume in advance In addition, multiple devices such as Lihuayi, Daqing Petrochemical, Yangba, and Lanzhou Petrochemical also have restart plans, and the overall supply of styrene is expected to increase Recently, the arrival volume of styrene has increased, but the downstream pick - up speed is slow, and it is expected that the port inventory will rise slightly on a low - level basis [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - On May 28, the main styrene futures contract decreased 1.38% to 7068 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8110 yuan/ton The basis decreased 11.73% to 647 yuan/ton [6] - The price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, while the prices of foreign pure benzene in South Korea, the United States, and China all decreased to varying degrees [6] - The pure benzene internal benefit - CFR spread increased 18.54% to - 332.4 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread increased 142.86% to 85 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased 1.04% and 1.81% respectively, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [6] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From May 16 to May 23, China's styrene production decreased 2.81% to 31.7 tons, and pure benzene production increased 1.31% to 39.5 tons [7] - During the same period, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 8.11% to 5.2 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 12.32% to 18.6 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 4.07% to 12.8 tons [7] (3) Operating Rate - From May 16 to May 23, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and some pure benzene downstream products such as phenol and aniline decreased, while the capacity utilization rates of some products such as caprolactam increased [8] - Among styrene downstream products, the capacity utilization rates of EPS and ABS decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of PS increased [8] 3. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's May meeting indicated that higher uncertainty is suitable for cautious interest rate cuts [9] - Trump's government submitted an appeal notice on May 29, 2025, after the federal court ruled that it had no right to impose extensive global tariffs The court's ruling suspended the implementation of these tariffs [9] - On May 28, OPEC + agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027 [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS, PS, EPS inventories, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][18][19][23][25][26][27][29][31]