XIAOMI(01810) Ping An Securities·2025-05-29 10:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (up 47.4% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (up 64.5% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive business's losses have narrowed, with a single-quarter operating loss reduced to 500 million yuan, and the SU7 series deliveries reached 75,869 units [6] - The smartphone high-end strategy is progressing, with a market share in mainland China returning to first place, and ASP for smartphones increased to 1,211 yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) [6] - The smart home appliance business is growing rapidly, with IoT and consumer goods revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan (up 58.7% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 25.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 41.8 billion, 53.4 billion, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth across multiple business segments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 502.4 billion, 649.6 billion, and 819.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 29.3%, and 26.1% [5][11] Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 23.2% and a narrowed operating loss of 500 million yuan [6] - The upcoming YU7 model is expected to be launched in July, featuring significant upgrades compared to the SU7 [6] Smartphone and IoT Business - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in Q1, and the ASP increased to 1,211 yuan [6] - The IoT and consumer goods segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in smart appliances [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins expected to reach 8.3% by 2025 [11] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 52.1 in 2024 to 29.5 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [11]