2024年报及2025一季报业绩综述及展望：内需看新消费，外需结构性机遇

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural opportunity in external demand while emphasizing the new consumption trends in domestic demand [1] - The performance of various sectors is expected to diverge, with companies that embrace transformation entering a new growth phase [5] - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a significant shift, with Douyin surpassing Tmall as the leading online platform for cosmetics sales [16] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is facing pressure on profit margins due to rising traffic costs on platforms like Douyin, leading to a general decline in profitability in the second half of 2024 [21] - Key companies such as 毛戈平, 巨子生物, and 上美股份 have shown strong revenue growth, with 毛戈平 achieving a 35% increase in revenue for 2024 [19] - The overall revenue for the cosmetics sector in 2024 was 605.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, while net profit decreased by 9% [20] 2. Medical Beauty - The medical beauty sector reported a revenue of 126.1 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12%, and a net profit of 31.3 billion RMB, up 20% [18] - Companies like 锦波生物 have shown exceptional performance, with net profit growth of 144% in 2024 [18] - The outlook for 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of slight revenue declines in the first quarter [18] 3. Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is benefiting from the demand for cost-effective products, maintaining steady revenue growth despite profit divergence [6] - The report suggests closely monitoring changes in U.S. tariff policies and the performance of platforms like Amazon and Shein [6] 4. Other Sectors - The mother and baby retail sector is experiencing positive growth due to an increase in birth rates and an expansion of product categories [6] - The report recommends focusing on companies that are adapting their business models in response to changing policies and market conditions [6] 5. Investment Strategy - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong operational capabilities and those that are showing signs of recovery in their performance metrics [26] - Specific companies to watch include 锦波生物, 毛戈平, and 巨子生物 in the cosmetics sector, and companies like 锦波生物 and 拉芳家化 in the medical beauty sector [26]