黑色金属日报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Threaded steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows some resilience in demand, but supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The iron ore market has marginal weakening pressure in supply and demand, and the price trend is mainly volatile. The coke and coking coal markets have abundant supply and weakening downstream demand, with downward price drivers. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets have weak prices despite some improvement in fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market has a slight rebound in the disk today. The apparent demand for threaded steel has increased slightly this week, production has decreased, and inventory has continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled steel have both increased significantly, and inventory has also continued to decline. The demand shows some resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability needs further observation. The iron production is at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still large. The negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The improvement in infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed down, and the real estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The US tariff issue may have a positive change, and the macro sentiment has improved. The market rebounds in the short term, but the rhythm may still be repeated. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rebounds in the disk today. The global shipment is in normal fluctuation, and it is still in a seasonally strong stage. There is still an expectation of capacity release in the second half of the year. The domestic arrival volume is expected to increase in the future, and the space for further reduction of national port inventory is relatively limited. The terminal demand enters the off-season, and the iron production gradually declines from the high level. Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, and Sino-US trade is in a window period. It is expected that the short-term reduction space of iron production is relatively limited. Overall, the iron ore supply and demand have certain marginal weakening pressure, and the external trade shows signs of further relaxation. The market sentiment has improved, and the ore price trend is mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The first round of coke price reduction has been fully implemented, but there is still profit, so the daily coke production is still at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory has increased slightly, and traders have no purchasing actions. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke disk is basically at par, but the cost reduction caused by the concession of coking coal will still lead to a downward shift in the coke price support [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The coking coal mine production is still at a relatively high level, and individual mines have production reduction actions. The number of shut-down mines has decreased to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory pressure has continued to accumulate rapidly. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, in the downward market stage, downstream buyers are pressing prices and purchasing cautiously, and traders' sentiment has turned negative. The Mongolian coal transaction has continued to weaken. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price hits a new low this year. After the bidding of the leading steel mill is completed, the price rebounds. Due to the continuous production reduction recently, the weekly production data has increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the estimated arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port at the end of this month. The iron production continues to decline slightly, and the silicomanganese supply has increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate in a trending manner, the market expectation has changed, and the price is still weak [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price hits a new low this year. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production is basically flat, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply continues to decline, the market transaction level is average, the on-balance sheet inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is still weak [8]