国证国际港股晨报-20250529

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index opening high but closing down by 123 points or 0.53% at 23,258 points, reflecting a decrease in trading volume by 11.05% to HKD 180.8 billion [2][4] - The net inflow from the Northbound trading was HKD 3.578 billion, a decrease of 70.1% compared to the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and CNOOC being the most bought stocks, while Xiaomi, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Kuaishou were the most sold [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market saw declines of 0.51%-0.58% across major indices, influenced by concerns from the Federal Reserve regarding balancing employment and inflation targets amid high economic uncertainty [3] - A ruling from the U.S. International Trade Court against President Trump's tariffs provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock futures by over 1% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan - Meituan reported a strong Q1 performance with total revenue of HKD 86.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding market expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit rose by 46% year-on-year to HKD 10.9 billion, driven by better-than-expected marketing expense management [6] - Core local commerce revenue grew by 18%, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [6][7] Group 4: Business Segments Performance - The core local business maintained robust growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively [7] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in daily order volume, particularly among high-frequency users, with an estimated growth rate of about 10% [7] - The new business segment's revenue grew by 19%, with losses narrowing to HKD 2.3 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in overseas markets [6][8] Group 5: Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21%, respectively [8] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business growth rates of 13% and 20% anticipated [8] - The target price for Meituan has been revised down to HKD 177, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [8]