美联储暗示不会很快降息，A股继续缩量震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes indicate that the Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined. The domestic market is in a short - term policy vacuum period, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no significant changes are expected. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an opportunity for the market to increase with increased trading volume after the festival. Recently, the market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen. Technically, there is still a distance to fill the gap around 3316, and short - term funds are more likely to choose to fill the gap and buy at the bottom. Additionally, attention should be paid to the liquidity of small - cap stocks to prevent extreme market conditions [2][12] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The Fed released FOMC meeting minutes, stating that due to rising risks in inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, the Fed strongly implied that it would not cut interest rates soon and clearly predicted stagflation. Some officials also hinted at the financial risk of rising long - term US bond yields. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields for 2 - year and 10 - year terms increased, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31%. The market showed a volatile downward trend, similar to Tuesday, with limited index movements, accelerated sector rotation, and many stocks experiencing a shrinking - volume decline. Some popular stocks appeared on the decline list. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, environmental protection, coal, transportation, and communication led the gains, while chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1750 rising stocks and 3477 falling stocks in the whole market. China announced visa - free policies for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The EU trade chief will talk with the US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative on Thursday, with topics including tariff policies and cooperation in aviation, semiconductors, and steel. Three major German car companies are in consultations with the US Department of Commerce on tariff issues, aiming for an agreement in early July. Trump responded angrily to the "TACO" deal. The Fed meeting minutes showed rising risks of unemployment and inflation, and the "Fed whisperer" said that the stagflation prediction might be the keynote of the Fed's June economic forecast. Chinese officials emphasized China's commitment to high - level opening - up and welcomed US financial institutions to participate in the Chinese capital market. The Chinese government also focused on building a good platform economy ecosystem and strengthening the publicity of rare - earth export control policies. DeepSeek open - sourced a new version, and China implemented visa - free policies for four Middle - Eastern countries [6][7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy with reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. The domestic market is in a policy vacuum, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no major changes are expected. After the festival, attention should be paid to potential market increases. The market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen, and there is a chance for short - term funds to fill the gap around 3316. Attention should also be paid to small - cap liquidity [12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and changes in trading volume and open interest [14][15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various stock indexes and sectors in the spot market, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation levels. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes [33][34][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rates, which are related to market liquidity [53]